Monthly Review - March 2025
"You can't con people, at least not for long. You can create excitement, you can do wonderful promotion and get all kinds of press, and you can throw in a little hyperbole. But if you don't deliver the goods, people will eventually catch on." — Donald Trump, The Art of the Deal
Is the "Trump-Bump" evolving into a "Tariff-Tragedy"?
March has been a turbulent month for markets, with President Donald Trump’s erratic approach to policy implementation — or in some cases, lack thereof — fuelling uncertainty, negatively impacting business and market sentiment. Investors and corporations are finding it increasingly difficult to plan for the future, as shifting rhetoric and unpredictable policy create an atmosphere of hesitation. The optimism that defined the post-election market rally in late 2024 is fading, and the market is struggling to adjust to heightened policy uncertainty. The consequences of this unpredictability are materialising in delayed investment decisions, a slowdown in hiring, and deteriorating business sentiment across multiple sectors.
One of our key macroeconomic indicators is semiconductor sales, which we track closely as a proxy for the health of the consumer economy. As Exhibit 1 illustrates, the correlation between the year-over-year (YoY) change in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) and the YoY change in global semiconductor sales in the subsequent three months, is highly significant. Just as energy prices serve as a barometer for the manufacturing economy and copper prices reflect trends in the construction sector, semiconductor sales offer a leading indicator of consumption patterns. A strong semiconductor market typically signals robust consumer demand and economic expansion, while a slowdown often foreshadows broader weakness.
Recent data points to a deceleration in semiconductor sales, reinforcing our view that growth risks are mounting.
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