"Gold is the money of kings, silver is the money of gentlemen, and barter is the money of peasants. But debt, is the money of slaves.” ~ Franz Norm

Last year in our March Monthly Review, we asked the question: Is it time to sell gold? Our answer was a resounding no. Since then, gold has surged over 40%, climbing from the low $2,000s to an all-time high of $2,950 in late February. This exceptional performance reinforces gold’s role as a hedge against rising economic uncertainty, inflation expectations, and currency volatility.

But now, we find ourselves revisiting the same question: Does gold still offer the same risk-return profile it did 12 months ago?

Aside from this question, we must also consider a broader set of pressing questions:

• What are the implications of escalating trade tensions, tariffs, and retaliatory measures?
• How will higher price of goods and services affect global demand?
• How will governments address ballooning deficits?
• What will be the impact of attempts to normalise budgets on labour markets?
• What happens if market liquidity starts to deteriorate?
• What is a realistic fair market multiple for U.S. equities if sentiment around AI calms?

All these questions must be considered collectively and not on a standalone basis.

Ultimately, we believe we are at the door of the Fiscal Age, and the most likely path forward is one of financial repression with serious implications for fiat currencies.

At the same time, sovereign economies are reassessing their exposure to U.S. Treasuries and are likely to continue diversifying the reserve assets into gold, in a world of rising fiscal imbalances and geopolitical realignments.

In our view, the answer is clear: gold remains the ultimate store of value, regardless of whether you are an individual investor or a central bank.

But what about the value? Below we looked at several models one might consider in an attempt to ‘value’ gold.

1. Trend-Following Approach (Our Preferred Method!) – The strength and persistence of gold’s rally reinforce its bullish trend.
2. Stock-to-Flow Model – Gold’s scarcity supports higher valuations over time and would suggest a significant rerating higher from current levels.
3. Central Bank Balance Sheet Model – Expanding global balance sheets suggest a higher equilibrium price for gold.
4. Inflation-Adjusted Model – Whilst Gold’s historical purchasing power remains intact, it remains behind CPI over the last 50 years would suggest it should be.

Each of these lead to the same conclusion: gold prices are likely to continue to move higher.

Meanwhile, capital remains heavily concentrated in expensive U.S. large-cap technology stocks on the back of the AI promise. There will undoubtedly be winners in this space, generating significant future returns. But not everyone can win—that is the essence of capitalism.

If S&P valuations normalize or liquidity tightens, many investors will seek refuge in gold, just as they have for centuries. In particular, western investors are significantly underexposed to gold and increasingly considering the opportunity cost of not owning enough.

So, to revisit our original question: Is it time to sell gold? Absolutely not. If anything, the case for owning gold has never been stronger.

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